‘Many companies react too quickly to change’

Adrian Bachofen: Tristan, can we really seriously explore the future?

Tristan Horx: Of course, Adrian! However, there is a difference between trend analysis and futurology. Trend analysis, in particular, is scientifically very precise. We objectively describe the present and try to get people out of their filter bubbles. We try to formulate forecasts from trends.

Bachofen: In the bbv Technica Radar, we evaluate technological trends and methods with regard to their future viability. This allows us to help our customers make decisions regarding upcoming investments. This is easier to predict than ‘the future’. Which leads me to the question: What is your definition of the future?

Horx: There is a simple rule of thumb: The more short-term the forecast, the more difficult it is to make, as volatility is much higher. We feel very comfortable making forecasts stretching 10 to 15 years into the future, and hindsight shows that we are often right.

Bachofen: How can you recognise disruptive inventions in a 15-year forecast? Disruptive also means unexpected and unpredictable.

Horx: So-called disruptive leaps – such as the market launch of the first iPhone – are often based on fundamental technologies and developments. In this example, this would be the network that enabled the interface to be used in the first place – in other words, the smartphone. These technologies do not appear overnight.

Bachofen: Let’s be a little more specific. You try to predict developments in your ‘digital hype cycle’. However, in my opinion, this is a correction loop, and right now we are at a low point. From now on, things should start looking up. As a digital service provider and developer, we are also aware of digital fatigue and digital overload. The key question is: How can we make our products more acceptable for people?

Here’s an example: We worked with Professor Damian Läge to develop software for doctors to record mental illnesses. Salience played a central role in this work. In an interview with Damian Läge on the subject of salience, we discussed the requirements and problems involved.

In short: We sensed the downward trend shown by the hype cycle. Why should things suddenly start looking up again now?

Horx: This is the cyclical nature of trends. Our cognitive perception often forces us to invest a lot of money, time and energy in trends. However, counter-trends are also at work. At some point, this system conflict escalates and then there is a synthesis, so a functional hybrid of trend and counter-trend, before this iterative process starts all over again.

Bachofen: According to your theory, the pendulum is now swinging in the other direction again after reaching its lowest point …

Horx: The pendulum must be actively swung, as you have done with your software! We are digitally underdeveloped in companies, but in society we are overdoing digitalisation.

Bachofen: My problem with this form of digitalisation is the information overload. It has so much content that doesn’t interest me, but I can’t get rid of it.

Horx: Correct! We are drowning in information, and the quality of that information is getting worse and worse. We spent a long time looking into how people research their health symptoms. In 2014, three quarters of those searching still got meaningful results. In 2019, it was only around 15 percent – with exponentially more information! We have to find a solution.

Bachofen: Your digital hype cycle contains several terms in the upward trend that I find convincing. Mindfulness, for example, is very relevant for me.

Horx: A large proportion of information mechanisms today are linked to pure profit. This is precisely why there is so much in the upward loop when it comes to mindfulness, real digital and regulation. Because basically these networks are a fantastic opportunity, but you have to force the genie back into the bottle.

Bachofen: What do you mean by real digital?

Horx: My favourite example of this is dating apps. Contrary to expectations, people are not interacting more with Tinder and the like, but less. Now attempts are being made to reverse this trend by combining digital and personal contacts. Digital pre-selection followed by in-person meetings, similar to speed dating in the past. The machines are set to get even better in the future. But we have to become more humane people, that is our USP. It’s difficult to reconcile these two aspects, because ambivalent thinking is so frustrating. It’s not about less technology, but about more humane technology.

Bachofen: The third element in the correction loop is ‘new user-centred algorithms’. What role does AI play here?

Horx: It’s exactly the same, only on steroids.

Bachofen: This is precisely why I am so sceptical about your correction loop, which is trending upwards again quite quickly.

Horx: How do you feel about the AI market?

Bachofen: Development happens in phases. The first part is support, for example in text creation. Now we are faced with the question of how to incorporate AI into products. We built the bbv AI Hub to integrate AI solutions. The main area of application is knowledge management. The baby boomers with their wealth of knowledge and experience are leaving the companies. AI is expected to preserve this knowledge to a certain extent. Of course, the aim is to create added value for users.

Horx: My expectations are less focused on generative AI and more on machine learning and automation of industrial processes. I see a strong lever there. Together with Accenture, we drew up forecasts as to which sectors of the economy would grow by 2035. In the industrial sector, a growth rate of 50 percent is forecast for automation with the help of AI.

Bachofen: We see similar potential, which we are addressing with our Swiss LCDM Hub. This allows data to be synchronised across companies and organisations. The area of application at present is the construction industry. Clients, building planners and tradesmen all have the same level of information. This creates clear added value.

Horx: You seem to be right about many things.

‘Knowledge transfer is no longer so important, the knowledge is available thanks to networking. What we need is training on how to use this knowledge correctly.’

Tristan Horx

Bachofen: That may be. But there’s another elephant in the room: Generation Z. Our future employees and customers. What does this generation want?

Horx: Gen Z is conservative and in search of security. It is formally very well educated, but the education market is churning out people for a labour market that no longer exists.

Bachofen: What does that mean exactly?

Horx: Knowledge transfer is no longer so important, the knowledge is available thanks to networking. What we need is training on how to use this knowledge correctly. But the network logic is still based on exponential quantity. We will have traumatised or burnt out two to three generations with our attention economy.

Bachofen: This leads me to my next question: As an entrepreneur, how can I come up with a plan to deal with this complex situation?

Horx: We are still using the logic of the industrial age, which is based on assembly lines and clocking in and out. Even in professional fields where this no longer makes sense.

Bachofen: That hasn’t been the case with us for a long time. Incidentally, our brand ‘Making Visions Work’ applies not only to the company and its customers, but also to its employees: What is your vision and how can we achieve it together? This opens up development opportunities that the company can support.

Horx: When we talk about personal visions, it becomes clear that using working hours as the sole benchmark is misguided. The basic difficulty for many companies lies in the timing of the transformation. We are in an era of transition. The way we see it is that we had traditional companies for a long time, then came the modern age and industrialisation. Right now, we are in the post-modern era, trying to dispel criticism of what we have achieved. We are on the threshold of metamodernity.

Bachofen: The ultra-modern?

Horx: Precisely: The traditional blends with the modern. Traditional forms of behaviour have not become established because certain people thought they were good, but because they were capable of surviving in an evolutionary sense.

Bachofen: And the solution?

Horx: What you are already doing at bbv to a large extent: skills-based, collaborative working, but not completely without hierarchies. Hierarchies yes, but they must not be too deep. And your approach to vision management in particular… not only does it sound appealing, it’s actually very attractive.

Bachofen: Let’s go back to basics: What fundamental questions do entrepreneurs need to answer in order to develop a master plan for the future?

‘Planning and agility are actually a contradiction. I cannot simply adjust the corporate strategy every other day.’

Adrian Bachofen

Horx: Times of transformation require agility. A buzzword I really hate because it’s used for all kinds of nonsense. But it fits here. You have to be able to react quickly to market developments.

Bachofen: However, planning and agility are actually a contradiction in terms. I cannot simply adjust the corporate strategy every other day.

Horx: Many companies suffer because they try to do just that. They quickly adjust plans to save or increase sales.

Bachofen: And what do you recommend instead?

Horx: We don’t recommend making a prediction in this case, but rather a diagnosis. We ask first: What will your office look like in 2040? Then we work our way backwards from the future towards the present. This is a psychological tool. When making forecasts, I work my way into the future and always find 5,000 reasons why something won’t work. If you turn this around, the uncertainty disappears and you gain a margin of manoeuvre within which the plan can evolve. The question is: What happened to make my office look like this in 15 years?

Bachofen: I find the time frame very ambitious. Even 10 years is enormous. 15 years is a long way off.

Horx: For futurologists, a forecast is easier the further away the date is. We are thinking in ever larger categories. By 2040, we will no longer have volatile energy prices because we will produce more than we can consume. By 2040, latency restrictions will be virtually eliminated in all networks. This will further blur the line between hardware and software.

Bachofen: Small and cheaper, of course. But will I have more gadgets?

Horx: This is down to the market: Will there be convergence towards a single super gadget, or will there be different players? I have no idea.

Bachofen: That’s a nice concluding sentence from a futurologist. (laughs)